Alan’s Review of the 2011 Buzz
12/23/2011
By Alan Preston and the CarCareBuzz Staff
Looking back on the buzz of 2011, it’s been an interesting year, hasn’t it? Some of the events of the year were predictable and others were nowhere in the expectations at the beginning. It’s been a year that has kept our interest all the way through from start to end. As with any year’s events, it’s hard to narrow down the most notable to a short list. We also know everyone would have their own. Here’s our list of the buzz items of 2011 worth noting again:
Tsunami in Japan
This event was tragic and devastating beyond comprehension. Beyond its impact to the industry, the human impact is incalculable. In an increasingly global market its tentacles reached nearly every sector of the automotive market. In its aftermath, what stands out is the resiliency of the Japanese people and its industry. As the year draws to a close the top two Japanese makers, Toyota and Honda, stand through November being down in sales only approximately 7% and 5% respectively. The Toyota Camry remains the top selling car in the U.S. market. The Tsunami in Japan is much beyond just an event of 2011. It is generational. Reports coming out of Japan indicate that it could take up to 40 years for cleanup and restoration. Our thoughts and prayers remain with the people of Japan.
Chrysler/Fiat Ad Campaigns
“Imported from Detroit” says it all. It is unquestionably the most transforming message from any carmaker this year. Chrysler’s sales show it. The new message launched at this year’s Super Bowl and successive campaigns are just as much about a city as they are about Chrysler. The intention of any ad campaign is to immediately connect it with the product. “Imported from Detroit” instantly connects the consumer to Chrysler, who they are, where they are from and what they intend to be. Later in the year, the Fiat campaigns featuring J-Lo have accomplished the exact same thing for this returning entry to the U.S. market. At the close of the year, Forbes placed Fiat as the number three comeback brand for 2012. Together Chrysler and Fiat have been a one-two punch from a company that honored a city with a sculpture of a fist at its center.
Chevrolet Volt Complete Failure
The Volt may not be Chevrolet’s Edsel, it may be worse. The complete failure of the Volt may damage their ability to enter the electric market for some time if not permanently. When you stand at the plate raise a finger and call the homer to left field, you had better be able to hit the ball out of the park. GM set a rather meager goal of 10,000 Volts this year. Even without the reports of fires, most recently, they had no chance of reaching their own goal. Years ago, Orson Wells reminded the buyers of Paul Masson wines, that they would “Sell no wine before its time”. Had GM only understood that concept, they may have not have damaged themselves so severely by attempting to sell a product that was this underdeveloped and to which no possible value proposition could be made to potential buyers. A nearly $40,000 sticker price with the guarantee of a rental car, should it catch fire, is hardly a sales pitch that will line up customers at the dealer’s doors. This could be the automotive blunder of the decade.
UAW D3 4 Year Agreements
At the outset of negotiations, the outcome of the agreements with Ford, GM and Chrysler were anything but predictable. There was tension, delays, the inevitable long sessions and of course drama. In final analysis the agreements were innovative, competitive and realistic. The results deserve commending both sides. Most significantly there was the emergence of a new player in town. His name is Sergio Marchionne. His involvement, presence and influence in the entire process can not be understated. That leads us to one more event worth noting.
Marchionne Letter
On the night of September 14, 2011, a bomb fell on Bob King, President of the U.A.W. It was scathing. It wasn’t the typical, politically correct speak of an automaker CEO to the U.A.W. This was something much different. Mr. King had been called out. The games were over. There was clearly a new player in town. The typical auto pundits in Detroit gasped, after all this was no way to talk to the U.A.W. was it? Mr. Marchionne put it all out there. It was a much needed two page letter. Actually, let’s correct that, it was a two page lecture. It was well deserved and pointed. It was the type of speak that has been needed in Detroit for a very long time. It worked.
As he put it, Chrysler maybe the smallest of the three in Detroit, but that does not make them less relevant. They are relevant indeed.
There is a new player in town. His name is Sergio Marchionne. Take notice.
NHTSA Cell Phone Ban
If we were writing a list of the most ridiculous items of 2011, this would be on top of the list. Whatever the good intentions of the NHTSA in this case, the solutions lie in technology already rapidly advancing throughout the auto industry. If there is any case, where the industry has taken action on its own to solve a safety issue, it is this one. It is worth saying again – ridiculous.
In what may be the only pro-business move by the current administration, Ray LaHood, Secretary of Transportation, quickly back tracked and said that he didn’t support the ban, nor would the administration pursue it. That leaves one to question, who’s running the show?
Make no mistake, we do agree with each state setting their own regulation of texting and cell phone use. However, an out an out ban of the communication engine of this industry and all business, is simply ridiculous.
Hyundai and KIA as Leaders
According to the Wall Street Journal, through November of 2011, Hyundai’s market share has improved from 4.7 to 5.2 at the same time last year. Kia had improved from 3.18 to 3.8. These two brands are clearly and visibly taking the road in the U.S. market. Their appeal crosses all demographics.
Those music loving hamsters are having an impact. Come on, you know you’ve had that “You can get with this, or you can get with that”, on the brain for a few moments. Consumers are clearly getting with KIA. Now let’s do the “Soul Shuffle Slam”.
Chevrolet Cruze
A huge win for Chevrolet in 2011, is clearly the Cruze. It’s worth taking notice. The Cruze is clearly the best attempt by General Motors to date in the small car market. It’s not just an attempt, it’s a huge success. We’ve test driven them. In our view the Chevy Cruze is above most, if not all, its competition in its class. It has great style, performs well, feels great, and its equipment is far superior. GM took a gamble when they equipped the Cruze at a much higher level than its competition. They believed that the consumer would respond and pay just slightly more for this vehicle; one with many more standard features. Its sales indicate that it’s a car people want to buy. We look for the Cruze to do even better in 2012.
SAAB Bankruptcy
If there was an event of 2011, that was predictable, it was the SAAB bankruptcy. It came late in the year and honestly we expected it sooner. It is another brand taken down in the wake of destruction in the inept management of General Motors that spans several regimes. It now joins Oldsmobile, Hummer, Pontiac, and Saturn in the annals of automotive history. We’d like to think the destruction is over. We’re not sure. We hope so, however, there is little confidence that it will be the case. So, for 2011, we’ll bid farewell to SAAB.
Car2Go
We think that Car2Go is one of the most innovative and exciting things happening in the industry. Car2Go is expanding steadily in dense metropolitan markets. We’ve been watching it closely. We like it. We think its growth in 2012, will be worth watching. We expect others to get into the game. Have you got your Car2Go?
Ford F-150
The Ford F-150 remains the number one selling vehicle – period. Its sales continued to increase in 2011, however, something interesting happened. For the first time in its history the V-6 EcoBoost outsold the V-8 Model. We think this is one of the most significant events in 2011. Americans love their pick-ups and they now love the F-150, even more with fuel efficiency that doesn’t sacrifice power. While the pick-up has over time become more a regular every day driver, the F-150 is still a truck. Trucks remain necessary for fleets, construction, farm use, service vehicles and general work vehicles. Ford delivered a more fuel efficient version in a V-6 with power and their buyers are recognizing it. This is a notable shift in this market segment. It did come with a price. This year we say good-bye to the Ford Ranger. Some things do have unintended consequences. We’re not so sure that keeping their compact truck that is sold outside of the U.S. and Canada, from this market is a good idea. We’ll see.
Sales!
Sales to date for 2011, are shaping up positive all the way around for the industry. Nearly all the predictions for December indicate the year will finish strong. There’s a trend emerging from the year. Consumers are going smaller. Figures from the Wall Street Journal show that “Small” is leading the car segment at 14% over 2010, and that “Mid-Sized SUV”, the clear leader in the light truck segment, at 48% over 2010. We believe this trend will continue for 2012 at even higher rates. We believe that consumers will no longer be lulled into larger vehicle purchases by temporary dips in prices at the pumps. They know it could change as quickly the next day. They are buying with that reality.
We know you have your own thoughts on 2011. We’d like to hear them.
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Very nice article. I had hoped GM would have done better with the Volt, but you hit the nail on the head.
The Chevy Cruise has proven to be popular. I hope it is enough for GM to prosper.